STATE ASSEMBLY RACES












CALIFORNIA
JOURNAL ANALYSIS OF THE 1998 CALIFORNIA PRIMARY RACES AND MEASURES


STATEWIDE RACES

U.S. Senate

Governor

Lieutenant
Governor


Secretary of State

Controller

Treasurer

Attorney General

Insurance Commissioner

Superintendent
of Public Instruction


Board of Equalization





STATE BALLOT
MEASURES


Prop 219
Prop 220
Prop 221
Prop 222
Prop 223
Prop 224
Prop 225
Prop 226
Prop 227




CALIFORNIA CONGRESSIONAL
RACES


Districts 1 - 26
Districts 27 - 52





LEGISLATIVE
RACES


STATE SENATE
Districts 2 - 40


STATE ASSEMBLY
Districts 1 - 20
Districts 21 - 40
Districts 41 - 60
Districts 61 - 80

HOT!

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 61

(Voter Registration: 45% D - 39% R) -- Democrats: Gloria Negrete McLeod of Chino and Nell Soto of Pomona. Republicans: Bob DeMallie of Rancho Cucamonga, Gus Skropos of Ontario, Jim Thalman and Mike Wickman of Chino Hills.

Two years ago, when Republican incumbent Fred Aguiar sought his third and final term, Republican registration was at 42 percent, and the popular Aguiar cruised to victory. But Aguiar is termed out and running unopposed for the San Bernardino County Board of Supervisors. More significant, GOP voter registration has slipped to under 40 percent, and that fact, coupled with a 42 percent Latino population, has caused Democrats to put this district on their "watch" list. As with any open seat, the race has drawn a diverse cast of characters from both parties. On the Republican side, money and a large elective base have made Ontario Mayor Skropos the early front-runner. Skropos has about $200,000 in the bank -- nearly 10 times more than any of his GOP competitors. In addition, he hails from the largest city in the district with some 43,000 voters and a strong fund-raising base among developers and the business community. As a deputy district attorney, he's also grabbed endorsements from most major law-enforcement groups in the area and most local elected officials, and the political baggage accrued during a failed 1995 recall attempt has mostly fallen away. Skropos ran for this same district back in 1992, losing 2-to-1 to Aguiar for what was then an open seat. All three of his primary opponents have some electoral experience. DeMallie served four years on the Cucamonga School District Board, including a two-year stint as president. The most conservative of the field, DeMallie is former president of the local California Republican Assembly chapter and has been endorsed by Senators Ray Haynes and Richard Mountjoy, and by several conservative assemblymen from other parts of the state. Although his bank account boasts only $20,000, he expects financial help from Haynes and perhaps from the conservative PAC headed by Ed Atzinger and Howard Ahmanson. He also was the first candidate to set up an absentee ballot program, launching his effort in early April. The other two GOP contenders -- Thalman and Wickman -- both serve on the Chino Hills City Council and share that base. Each is a retired peace officer. Thalman, who has raised about $12,000 and matched that amount from his own pocket, has endorsements from several local elected officials, as well as from the California Firefighters Association. He has targeted a $100,000 warchest but hasn't raised nearly that much to date. Wickman, on the other hand, has been slow to organize his effort due to his wife's illness, which may prevent him from campaigning as vigorously as the others. He also had about $20,000 on hand in early April and has no plans to hire professional campaign help. On the Democratic side, the front runner is Soto, a Pomona councilwoman and the widow of Phil Soto, who represented the area in the Assembly during the 1960s. She has about $55,000 in the bank and is backed by most legislative Democrats, including Speaker Antonio Villaraigosa and Senator Richard Polanco. She also has the endorsement of the state Democratic Party. First, however, she must dispose of McLeod, an elected member of the Chaffey Community College Board, who has raised little cash outside the $20,000 she used to seed the campaign.

HOT!

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 62

(Voter Registration: 56% D - 30% R) -- Democrats: Rita Arias of San Bernardino, Karl Gaytan of Colton, Frank Guzman of Grand Terrace, John Longville of Rialto, Albert Martinez of San Bernardino. Republican: Irma Escobar of Fontana.

With Democrat Joe Baca termed out and running for the Senate, this becomes an open seat that has attracted a bevy of Democrats. Although none of the candidates yet causes much of a blip on the radar screen, the most recognizable name is that of Longville, the mayor of Rialto. He ran for this seat when it came open back in 1992, finishing a distant third to Baca in the primary. Longville had raised $37,000 by early April, spending $7,000 of it on a mailer. He also had been endorsed by area Congressman George Brown, Assemblywoman Sheila Kuehl and the state Democratic Party. Another endorsement came from Colton Mayor Karl Gaytan, who had been on the ballot himself but withdrew in mid March due to ill health. Two other Democrats -- attorney Guzman and San Bernardino City Councilwoman Arias -- had showed little fund raising or campaign activity by the end of March. Guzman had no money; Arias reported but $1400. So, the field would seem to be clearing for Longville, right? Enter Martinez, a parole agent from San Bernardino and a former prison guard. Martinez, who has never held elective office, is backed -- heavily -- by the California Correctional Peace Officers Association, which already has seeded his campaign with $50,000 and plans to spend what it takes to get him through the primary. His campaign, managed by Sacramento veteran David Townsend, has been endorsed by, among others, Speaker Antonio Villaraigosa and former Senator Bob Presley, an area political icon. He also has earned the nod of Mike Reynolds, the author and champion of "three strikes." He already has put together a large volunteer network drawn from the CCPOA itself, which has a large presence in the prison-heavy county. A Martinez primary victory likely will seal this district in the Democratic column, for even though Republicans believe they have an attractive candidate in businesswoman Irma Escobar, they won't buck the CCPOA. If Longville wins the primary, however, this one heats up in the fall.

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 63

(Voter Registration: 39% D - 47% R) -- Republican: Incumbent Bill Leonard. Libertarian: Maureen Lindberg. Both of San Bernardino.

Leonard, who used to be in the Senate and now is Assembly minority leader, must divert his attention elsewhere. His grip on leadership may well depend on how well his caucus performs in November. Pick up seats -- or stay even -- and he's likely to remain minority leader. Lose seats and his stay at the top of the caucus could be brief.

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 64

(Voter Registration: 42% D - 44% R) -- Republican: Incumbent Rod Pacheco of Riverside.

Anyone seen the old donkey that used to be tethered out here?

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 65

(Voter Registration: 39% D - 46% R) -- Democrat: Ray Quinto of Yucaipa. Republicans: Incumbent Brett Granlund of Yucaipa, David O'Brien of Big Bear City, James Grimes of Running Springs. Natural Law: Joseph Renteria of Cherry Valley.

Incumbent Granlund had a primary challenge from retired judge O'Brien in 1996. O'Brien was entirely self-funded but managed only 30 percent of the vote. He's back for another try and promises two things -- to spend $100,000 from his personal retirement fund and to make Granlund the issue. He already had launched a radio campaign by early April and plans to stay on the air through the end of May. If O'Brien follows through, and if businessman James Grimes also weighs in with resources that are yet to surface, Granlund could sweat the primary. The winner faces Democrat Quinto, a retired naval officer.

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 66

(Voter Registration: 33% D - 52% R) -- Democrat: Patsy Hockersmith of Corona. Republican: Incumbent Bruce Thompson of Fallbrook.

Hockersmith challenged Thompson in 1996. She challenged the former Assembly incumbent -- Ray Haynes -- in 1992. Both times, she lost by some 34,000 votes.

HOT!

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 67

(Voter Registration: 33% D - 51% R) -- Democrats: Marie Fennell of Huntington Beach; Rima Nashashibi of Seal Beach. Republicans: Incumbent Scott Baugh of Huntington Beach, Doris Allen of Westminster, Chuck Conlosh of Fountain Valley, Marilyn Bruce Hastings of Seal Beach, Felix Rocha, Jr. of Fountain Valley, Haydee Velasquez Tillotson of Huntington Beach. Libertarian: Autumn Browne of Westminster.

Expensive and ugly, featuring a reunion of sorts for those involved in the infamous recall election of November 1995 (see CJ, January 1996). There's incumbent Baugh, who won the recall and who still faces a felony trial for alleged campaign reporting violations accrued during that effort. There's Allen, the former renegade assemblywoman recalled after she cut a deal with Democratic lawmakers to become speaker. And there's developer Tillotson, who filed in the recall but was bullied out of the race 12 days before the election by the local GOP power structure that backed Baugh. Allen's candidacy is something out of Cervantes, given that few recalled lawmakers try to reclaim a seat from which they have been tossed. Also, she's been living in Sacramento for the past two years. Her candidacy, in fact, survived only because a court overturned a decision by Secretary of State Bill Jones to disqualify her because -- in Jones' opinion -- she was termed out. Allen isn't likely to be much of a problem for Baugh since she's having trouble raising money. Money isn't a concern for Tillotson, who has the personal resources to seed her campaign with ample cash. Whether she decides to open her wallet will depend on how much her treatment during the recall lit a fire in the belly. Baugh, meanwhile, is expecting to spend $200,000 to $300,000. If Tillotson doesn't match him, she likely will have to wait to see if Baugh's felony trial results in a conviction -- a situation that will immediately remove the one-term incumbent from office and force a special election.

HOT!

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 68

(Voter Registration: 39% D - 44% R) -- Democrat: Mike Matsuda of Garden Grove. Republicans: Ho Chung of Garden Grove, Paul Gonzalez of Buena Park, John Kellogg of Westminster, Ken Maddox of Garden Grove, Joy Neugebauer of Westminster.

With incumbent Curt Pringle termed out and running for state treasurer, this seat features a wide open battle in the Republican primary. Though five GOP candidates are running, the race is really a three-way contest between attorney Kellogg and Garden Grove City Councilmen Chung and Maddox. Each enjoys a base of support and key endorsements. Maddox is Pringle's hand-picked choice, a first term councilman and Tustin police officer. He's managed to raise some cash and will be helped out along the way by Pringle. Normally, an endorsement from the incumbent might be enough to make Maddox the front-runner, except that Kellogg has Assemblymen Jim Morrissey and Scott Baugh and Senator Rob Hurtt in his corner. Hurtt's endorsement is an especially big feather in Kellogg's hat, considering Hurtt's reputation for dropping money into campaigns. On his own, Kellogg has raised $80,000 so far, half of which came from him or his family. Kellogg also has the College Republicans and a local gun owners group helping to walk precincts. Then there's Chung, a Korean-born businessman and the first non-white member of the Garden Grove council. He has racked up endorsements from locally elected officials, including three members of the Orange County Board of Supervisors. He also has support from the area's growing Asian community, which now makes up nearly 20 percent of the district. The other two GOP candidates are Neugebauer, a councilwoman and mayor pro tempore of Westminster, who has no money or endorsements, and businessman Gonzalez, who has yet to surface.

HOT!

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 69

(Voter Registration: 52% D - 33% R) -- Democrat: Lou Correa of Anaheim. Republican: Incumbent Jim Morrissey of Anaheim. Libertarian: Bolynda Schultz of Santa Ana. Reform: Jim Benson of Anaheim.

Democrats are still kicking themselves for not helping Correa more in 1996, when he missed knocking off Morrissey by only 93 votes. They did pour some money late into the campaign, but it wasn't enough to offset the incumbent's $200,000 advantage. That mistake will not be repeated this year, Democrats have vowed. Assembly Speaker Antonio Villaraigosa already has declared Morrissey at the top of his caucus' hit list. This district overlaps with the 46th Congressional District where Democratic incumbent Loretta Sanchez will be a top target herself and where former Congressman Bob Dornan is in the primary, gurgling over a potential rematch with Sanchez.

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 70

(Voter Registration: 29% D - 54% R) -- Republican: Incumbent Marilyn Brewer of Newport Beach. Natural Law: Nat Adam of Irvine.

Brewer's re-election is a natural.

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 71

(Voter Registration: 27% D - 57% R) -- Democrat: Martha Badger of Rancho Santa Margarita. Republican: Incumbent Bill Campbell of Orange. Natural Law: Brenda Bryant of Santa Ana.

Most Republican district this side of Arizona.

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 72

(Voter Registration: 31% D - 54% R) -- Democrat: Frank Legas of Fullerton. Republican: Incumbent Dick Ackerman of Fullerton. Libertarian: Loren Meierding of Fullerton.

This time, at least, Ackerman may have to post a few signs on some lawns, maybe make an appearance or two at a local supermarket during his re-election campaign. Last time around, he didn't have an opponent.

HOT!

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 73

(Voter Registration: 29% D - 52% R) -- Democrat: Robert Wilberg of Capistrano Beach. Republicans: Steve Apodaca of San Clemente, Patricia Bates and Jim Lacy of Laguna Niguel. Libertarian: Donald Rollins of Oceanside. Natural Law: Matteo Ornati of Dana Point.

Another open Republican seat featuring a three-way battle for the nomination. The district is almost evenly split between southern Orange County and San Diego County, including Camp Pendleton, and where incumbent Bill Morrow is termed out and running for the Senate. He's also keeping his nose out of the primary. That leaves Laguna Niguel Mayor Bates, tax attorney Lacy and San Clemente Councilman Apodaca to slug it out. Bates enjoys the support of local legislators, including Senators Bill Craven and Ross Johnson and Assemblymembers Bill Campbell, Marilyn Brewer and Dick Ackerman. She was also the first to get her absentee mailer out and had raised almost $100,000 by the end of the first reporting period. Lacy is well-connected with the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, having served as an aide to Jarvis during the Proposition 13 campaign. In fact, he originally had as his ballot designation "taxpayer representative," but a judge forced him to change it; he now lists himself as a "small business owner." Lacy previously worked in both the Reagan and Bush administrations before running unsuccessfully for Congress in 1992, finishing third to Jay Kim in the CD 41 GOP primary. His endorsements include many of the Legislature's most conservative members -- Assemblymen Howard Kaloogian, Tom McClintock, Steve Baldwin and Senators Ray Haynes and Richard Mountjoy. National conservative darling Oliver North also is backing Lacy, having appeared at a fund raiser and taped some radio spots that have aired in the San Diego County portion of the district. Of the $100,000 Lacy has raised, $20,000 is from his own pocket. He's also hit the district with two mailers so far. Apodaca, meanwhile, is behind the other two in mail, money and legislative endorsements. He does, however, have a long list of mayoral and city council endorsements, including two members of the Orange County Board of Supervisors. A self-described fiscal conservative, Apodaca is the only pro-choice candidate among the three, a characteristic he is downplaying in the conservative district.

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 74

(Voter Registration: 31% D - 49% R) -- Democrats: William Fitzgerald of Solano Beach, Anne Fragasso of Leucadia. Republican: Incumbent Howard Kaloogian of Carlsbad. Natural Law: Aditi Gentsch of Del Mar.

For the past two elections, Republican Kaloogian has been plagued by the Clayton family. Fred Clayton lost a bitter, nasty, negative campaign to him in the 1994 primary, and as a result, Clayton and his wife tag-teamed Kaloogian in 1996 -- his wife in the primary and Fred as an independent in the general.This year, Fred Clayton is running for the Board of Equalization.

HOT!

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 75

(Voter Registration: 30% D - 51% R) -- Democrat: David Debus of San Diego. Republicans: Joel Anderson of Alpine, Mark Price of Alpine, Charlene Zettel of Poway. Natural Law: William Cowling III of San Diego. Libertarian: Donna Tello of Poway.

The race to succeed termed-out Republican Jan Goldsmith has attracted a trio of GOP candidates with the resources and backing to win the primary -- and, therefore, the seat. Anderson is the most conservative of the group -- pro-life, pro-Second Amendment, pro-death penalty, pro-three strikes, pro-vouchers. As a result, he's earned endorsements from Senator Ray Haynes, Assemblymen Howard Kaloogian, Bruce Thompson and Bill Morrow, the Gun Owners of California, Paul Gann's Citizens Committee, former California Republican Assembly prez John Fleishmann and the California Pro-Life Council. He was recruited to run by Assemblyman Steve Baldwin from the neighboring 77th District. He also has been endorsed by the Building Industry Association. Although he has professional campaign help, Anderson himself has plenty of expertise -- a direct-mail business that specializes in absentee-ballot programs. His campaign expects to raise about $200,000 for the primary although he reported having raised only $26,000 by mid March, most of it from his own pocket. His fund raising picked up after the reporting period, however, and he had about $75,000 on hand by early April. This is his first run for elective office. Zettel sits on the other end of the GOP political spectrum. A self-described fiscal conservative, she is pro-choice on abortion and has focused her campaign on education. She is the only elected official in the field, having served two terms on the Poway Unified School Board. That provides a solid base, given that the school district includes about 60 percent of the district's likely voters. In her most recent election -- 1996 -- she was the top vote-getter. Money is not a problem for Zettel, who already has plunked $50,000 of her own into the race and promises to dig deeper if necessary, although she showed decent fund raising as well by reporting a total of $108,000 by mid-March. And then there is Price, who has opened his wallet the widest. He's donated $150,000 to the effort and plans to spend it on an absentee-ballot campaign, radio ads and direct mail. Price is perhaps the best known of the three Republicans thanks to a self-funded series of radio commentaries that have aired on local stations for several months and which ran during two popular talk shows -- Roger Hedgecock and Rush Limbaugh. Price, too, is a conservative and recently gained the endorsement of the California Republican Assembly. As a result, he and Anderson could split the conservative vote, giving the more moderate Zettel -- with her wide name recognition and education background -- an opening. The district itself is one of the more conservative in the San Diego area, an advantage for the more well-known Price. Look for this primary to go negative early, especially as Anderson and Price jockey on the right.

HOT!

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 76

(Voter Registration: 41% D - 38% R) -- Democrat: Incumbent Susan Davis. Republicans: Duane Admire, Linda Escher-Davis. Libertarian: Edward Teyssier. All of San Diego.

This is one of those San Diego districts that gauls Republicans. Registration figures indicate they ought to be able to win it -- or at least be competitive. But for the past two elections, incumbent Davis has more than held her own against an opponent -- Bob Trettin -- considered too conservative for the district. In 1994, Davis beat Trettin by 3,500 votes in what was then an open seat. In '96, however, she increased that margin to 11,000 votes. Exit Bob Trettin. Enter a pair of Republicans -- Escher-Davis, a nurse, and Admire, an attorney -- for what already has become a nasty primary. Admire, 31, inherits Trettin's conservative cloak, having earned an endorsement from the Conservative Opportunity Society. He also expects nods from the California Republican Assembly and California Pro-Life Council. He is making his first run for elective office and has reported having raised $62,000 by mid-March, almost all of it from his own pocket and from family and friends. Admire, whose wife is an eye doctor and who owns optometry clinics, claims that some local party leaders tried to pressure him out of the race in favor of Escher-Davis because she has the same last name as the incumbent. Likely those local officials wanted Escher-Davis because they knew her, and because they wanted a woman on the ballot to face Davis. Escher-Davis has long been involved with district politics as a member of the local Lincoln and Republican Federated Women clubs. With a masters degree in nursing and a pro-choice view of abortion, she has cross-over appeal for both the primary and general election. Although her campaign treasury boasted only $22,000 as of mid March, she expects to raise the $100,000 she says will be needed for the primary. She's gained the backing of the Lincoln Club, as well as endorsements from local elected officials such as Randy Cunningham, Howard Kaloogian, Brian Bilbray, Bill Morrow and Byron Ware. As for the tone, both sides are hurling charges. Escher-Davis is accusing Admire of fronting for trial lawyers. Admire, on the other hand, tried to brand Escher-Davis as a carpetbagger because she was born and educated outside California. Unfortunately for Admire, Escher-Davis has lived in the 77th District for 15 years, while Admire, who hails from the San Francisco Bay area, has lived there less than one year.

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 77

(Voter Registration: 39% D - 42% R) -- Democrat: Margaret Carlson of El Cajon. Republican: Incumbent Steve Baldwin of El Cajon. Libertarians: Michael Metti of El Cajon, Elizabeth Meyers of San Diego.

Republican Baldwin first won this seat in 1994 by knocking off an incumbent Democrat -- Tom Connolly -- who was weighed down with legal baggage. In the process, Baldwin overcame his own baggage -- including a claim uttered in an unsuccessful 1992 Assembly bid that the U.S. Air Force had an "official witch."

HOT!

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 78

(Voter Registration: 38% D - 40% R) -- Democrat: Incumbent Howard Wayne of San Diego. Republicans: Jean Roesch of Coronado, Myke Shelby of San Diego, Rick Wildman of La Jolla. Natural Law: Stuart Knoles of San Diego. Libertarian: John Murphy of San Diego.

This is another of those San Diego districts that cause Republicans to buy Maalox by the case. Registration puts it squarely in their column, but for the 1990s -- and a good chunk of the 1980s as well -- voters have put the district squarely in the Democratic column. Senator Dede Alpert held the seat from 1990 to 1996, when she was succeeded by Wayne, who defeated former GOP Assemblywoman Tricia Hunter. Wayne now must defend the seat, and he's drawn as diverse a set of GOP wanna-bes as can be imagined: a moderate school board member, a conservative Jewish "biker" known as "New York Myke," and a very conservative lawyer whose brother already sits in the Assembly -- as a Democrat. The school board member is Roesch, who's served on the Coronado Unified School District Board for the past decade. A school counselor, Roesch is pro-choice and has made education her focus. She reported $53,000 in the bank in March, but more than half of it came from her own pocket. She's paying her way onto some slate mailers and plans an absentee-ballot program to augment precinct walking and some cable TV ads. Although well known in her home base, Coronado encompasses less than 20 percent of the district, and Roesch must work hard to expand her name ID. That's not a problem for "New York Myke," who as Myke Shelby owns the area's largest Harley Davidson dealership. As the name suggests, he's a New York City transplant, although he has lived in San Diego for a dozen years. A conservative, he's running a "get government out of the way" campaign. He reported $25,000 for the first period, most of it his own money, although he indicates he won't seed the campaign with much more if a fund-raising effort falls short. He's spent on a mailer zipped into 221,000 homes on April 15th and on a radio ad campaign that appeals for donations. He's been endorsed by a pair of assemblymen -- Howard Kaloogian and Bill Morrow. The third Republican is attorney Wildman, regarded as the most conservative candidate. He is pro-life and opposed to most forms of gun control, including the assault weapon ban. The brother of Democratic Assemblyman Scott Wildman of Glendale, Rick Wildman has twice run unsuccessfully for public office, neither time as a Republican. He ran as a Democrat against GOP Assemblywoman Sunny Mojonnier back in 1984, losing by some 60,000 votes. He also finished well out of the money in a 1992 race for San Diego County supervisor. His early fund-raising effort consisted mostly of opening his wallet and fishing out $18,000 in loans, although he raised an additional $16,000 in early April. He has yet to attract any major endorsements. Going in, Roesch would seem to have several early advantages. First, she has a track record at the polls, which gives her something of a base, albeit a small one. Second, she is both a moderate and a woman, and voters in this part of San Diego have shown a propensity over the years to favor moderate women over conservative men. In a new era of the blanket primary, Roesch may be able to appeal to the district's sizeable bloc of independent voters now eligible to vote in the primary. That having been said, the GOP contest likely will hinge on money -- who has it to spend and when.

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 79

(Voter Registration: 54% D - 24% R) -- Democrat: Incumbent Denise Ducheny of San Diego. Republican: Carl Kinz of Chula Vista. Libertarian: Richard Cardulla of San Diego.

A final turn around the Assembly block for Ducheny, chairwoman of the budget committee.

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 80

(Voter Registration: 46% D - 40% R) -- Democrat: Joey Acuna Jr. of Coachella. Republican: Incumbent Jim Battin of La Quinta. Libertarian: Susan Weber of Palm Desert.

Republican Battin earned a slap from the FPPC for taking gifts from lobbyists, but Democrats will have to feel very very confident -- and be rolling in dough -- before going after this seat. Still, Democrats held this seat until Battin was elected in 1994 and may take a hard look at Acuna, a school-board trustee from Coachella.






This page first published May 25, 1998

Last updated May 25, 1998




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