STATE ASSEMBLY RACES












CALIFORNIA
JOURNAL ANALYSIS OF THE 1998 CALIFORNIA PRIMARY RACES AND MEASURES


STATEWIDE RACES

U.S. Senate

Governor

Lieutenant
Governor


Secretary of State

Controller

Treasurer

Attorney General

Insurance Commissioner

Superintendent
of Public Instruction


Board of Equalization





STATE BALLOT
MEASURES


Prop 219
Prop 220
Prop 221
Prop 222
Prop 223
Prop 224
Prop 225
Prop 226
Prop 227




CALIFORNIA CONGRESSIONAL
RACES


Districts 1 - 26
Districts 27 - 52





LEGISLATIVE
RACES


STATE SENATE
Districts 2 - 40


STATE ASSEMBLY
Districts 1 - 20
Districts 21 - 40
Districts 41 - 60
Districts 61 - 80

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 41

(Voter Registration: 49% D - 34% R) -- Democrat: Incumbent Sheila Kuehl of Santa Monica. Republican: Paul Jhin of Malibu. Peace and Freedom: John Honigsfeld of Malibu.

One of Sacramento's sharpest, Kuehl is virtually untouchable, despite relatively weak Democratic registration.

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 42

(Voter Registration: 57% D - 24% R) -- Democrat: Incumbent Wally Knox. Republican: Kevin Davis. Peace and Freedom: Nancy Lawrence. All of Los Angeles.

Knox will waltz into his final Assembly term.

HOT!

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 43

(Voter Registration: 45% D - 38% R) -- Democrat: Incumbent Scott Wildman of Los Angeles. Republicans: Peter Repovich of Montrose and Dave Wallis of Glendale. Libertarian: Daniel White of Burbank. Reform: Marie Buren of Toluca Lake.

Since it was redrawn in 1991, the district once represented by conservative "caveman" Pat Nolan has gone from about even registration to a 7-point edge for Democrats. It is also currently represented by Wildman, a former United Teachers of Los Angeles organizer and a mainstream, if somewhat iconoclastic, Democrat. The district is a perenial target for whichever party doesn't hold it, and it will be again. But after the biennial overtures to Glendale Mayor Larry Zarian were again rebuffed, the GOP was left without many options, and their field this year consists of two perenial candidates. Repovich, the likely primary winner, is a 15-year LAPD veteran who has run twice before with financial help from a mysterious Las Vegas massage therapist. Neither race got him past the primary, but with only the underfinanced Wallis against him, it looks like Repovich's year. Can Repovich take out Wildman? Registration suggests he can, and the incumbent's scattershot chairmanship of the Joint Legislative Audit Committee has earned him enemies among those who should be friends. But Republicans tend to campaign as if this were the old conservative 43rd, a fact the Democrats can be expected to spend a lot of time and money emphasizing. Whatever they may think of Wildman, the caucus can ill-afford to give any ground in territory so freshly won.

HOT!

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 44

(Voter Registration: 45% D - 40% R) -- Democrat: Incumbent Jack Scott of Altadena. Republican: Ken La Corte of Pasadena. Green: Shawn Waddell of Pasadena. Libertarian: Ken Saurenman of Pasadena. Reform: Philip Corvalan of Arcadia.

Two years after unseating targeted GOP incumbent Bill Hoge, it is now Scott, former head of Pasadena City College, who is the target. The National Rifle Association, in fact, is already "gunning" for Scott, having run newspaper advertising attacking his position on gun control. Businessman LaCorte has lagged behind the incumbent in fund raising, but rest assured he'll get the money if Republicans think they can get anywhere close to knocking Scott off.

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 45

(Voter Registration: 62% D - 18% R) -- Democrat: Incumbent Antonio Villaraigosa. Republican: Kitty Hedrick. Both of Los Angeles.

Make that Speaker Villaraigosa, at least for another year or two. Villaraigosa has already had an impact on this year's elections, as he eschewed the practice of past leaders and openly endorsed candidates in contested primaries. Villaraigosa became speaker largely on the perception that he could hold the majority. Now, he gets to prove it.

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 46

(Voter Registration: 65% D - 17% R) -- Democrat: Incumbent Gil Cedillo. Republican: Andrew Kim. Both of Los Angeles.

A bitter winter special election, in which organized labor organized like never before, allowed Cedillo to take over the seat previously held by moderate Louis Caldera. Cedillo's victory helped propel his friend Antonio Villaraigosa into the speakership.

HOT!

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 47

(Voter Registration: 72% D - 13% R) -- Democrats: Marcia Cohen of Culver City, Joey Hill of Los Angeles, Herb Wesson of Culver City. Republican: Jonathan Leonard. Libertarian: Eric Fine. Both of Los Angeles.

This district, which includes upper middle-class enclaves such as Baldwin Hills, is one of the more affluent African-American dominated areas in the country. The last time the seat was open, current incumbent Kevin Murray (now running for Senate) survived a bruising primary, winning with 21 percent of the vote. It will take considerably more than 21 percent to win this time, even in an open primary year. The race, which is all in the Democratic primary, boils down to the two -- men Hill and Wesson -- whose combined fund raising as of early April had already topped $500,000. Wesson, the chief deputy to Los Angeles County Supervisor Yvonne Burke, has been tapping the contacts gleaned from being "chancellor of the exchequer" in Burke's supervisorial fiefdom. Presiding over a much smaller fiefdom -- a legislative office -- is Hill, Murray's own chief of staff. As Murray did in 1994, Hill emphasizes his ties to the community, and his endorsement list is full of local church ministers in addition to heavyweights like Senator Diane Watson and former Assembly Speaker Willie Brown. His campaign is also critical of Burke's heavy-handed fund-raising efforts on Wesson's behalf. For its part, the Wesson campaign seeks to attack Hill by attacking his boss, whom they argue hasn't done anything for the district. In addition to Burke's endorsement, Wesson has the support of the L.A. Federation of Labor, SEIU, and Representative Julian Dixon. With all that money floating around, it's a cinch mailboxes will be filled as never before -- Murray himself never spent more than $80,000 on a race. But organizing is still important, and each has their own strength: Wesson has the key organized labor support while Hill has spots on most of the district's better known slate mailers.

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 48

(Voter Registration: 82% D - 5% R) -- Democrat: Incumbent Rod Wright. Republican: Ernest Woods. Both of Los Angeles.

Wright got in some hot water earlier this year for roughing up an Assembly staffer. But there's nobody on the horizon to rough him up come election time.

HOT!

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 49

(Voter Registration: 59% D - 23% R) -- Democrats: Bob Bruesch of Rosemead, Judy Chu of Monterey Park, Susan Martinez-Baker of Rosemead, Barbara Messina of Alhambra, Gloria Romero of Los Angeles. Republican: Jay Imperial of Rosemead. Libertarian: Rachel Brown of Alhambra.

While any suggestion of a "Martinez political legacy" would occasion rolled eyebrows and stifled snickers in Sacramento and Washington, D.C., it is at least something of a reality on the home turf of Representative Matthew Martinez and his daughter, Assemblywoman Diane Martinez. So it was no surprise to see another Martinez daughter -- Susie -- looking to move into her older sister's Assembly seat when term limits struck. But as has been the case with the more established Martinez', there is no shortage of people looking to punch some holes into the "legacy." Martinez-Baker, whose ballot designation is "Business Owner/Mom," is one of four competitors for the seat. Chu, a Monterey Park councilmember and former mayor, is the best financed of the group. Four years ago, in an unsuccessful challenge to Martinez, Chu raised nearly $300,000, and has already raised more money than the rest of the candidates combined. Alhambra Mayor Messina isn't as well funded but also boasts the bona fides of a public official. Romero is a psychology professor who sits on the L.A. Community College Board of Trustees. In 1997, she also won a seat on Mayor Richard Riordan's newly formed Charter Reform Commission. Romero sports the toniest endorsement list, with names such as Antonio Villaraigosa, Richard Polanco and Riordan. Riordan's support has proven good for fund raising in other areas, so it is possible Romero could close the financial gap with Chu. But Martinez-Baker's natural name identification make her impossible to ignore. One wild card factor in the race could be ethnicity. This district is the probably as close as any in the state to being an Asian-influenced district, with large concentrations of Chinese and Japanese voters. Four years ago, running in a closed primary against a single high-profile Latina -- Martinez -- Chu fell short. But this year, the primary is open, and the field is considerably broader. If Asian Republicans and independents cross over to support Chu, it could help her achieve enough of a plurality to squeak past the other four Democrats and sweep aside the "Martinez legacy."

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 50

(Voter Registration: 68% D - 16% R) -- Democrats: Elvira Moreno de Guzman of Maywood, Marco Firebaugh of Los Angeles, Alfredo Hernandez of South Gate. Republican: Gladys Miller of South Gate.

Normally an open seat such as this one vacated by termed-out incumbent Martha Escutia would occasion a mad dash. But party leaders moved quickly and the field was cleared relatively early for Firebaugh, a young lawyer who does legal analysis for a number of municipalities in the area. Veteran consultant Hernandez will keep it from being a total wipe out.

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 51

(Voter Registration: 68% D - 16% R) -- Democrat: Incumbent Ed Vincent of Inglewood. Republican: Robert Acherman of Los Angeles. Green: Rex Frankel of Los Angeles.

Vincent has made waves in Sacramento for his efforts on behalf of tobacco interests, notably his work to repeal the indoor smoking ban. When taking controversial positions, it helps to be safe at home.

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 52

(Voter Registration: 75% D - 10% R) -- Democrat: Incumbent Carl Washington of Paramount.

Two years ago, Washington survived a tough primary against Assemblyman Kevin Murray's sister. He was rewarded this year with a pass.

HOT!

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 53

(Voter Registration: 42% D - 40% R) -- Democrats: Laurie Fathe of Los Angeles; Stewart Fournier of Manhattan Beach; George Nakano and Mark Wirth of Torrance. Bob Pinzler and Zeke Zeidler of Redondo Beach, Chris O'Brien of Hermosa Beach. Republican: Bill Eggers of Redondo Beach.

Although she somehow always found a way to win, termed out incumbent Debra Bowen won't miss running in this Republican-leaning but independent-minded coastal district. She certainly won't miss the target permanently attached to her back. But Bowen's experience seemed not to deter many would-be Democratic successors. The best financed of these prospects is Nakano, a member of the Torrance City Council. Four years ago, Nakano ran a well-financed aggressive challenge to then-incumbent state Senator Ralph Dills, keeping the octagenarian lawmaker under 50 percent. Nakano has supplemented his own effective fund raising with money out of his own pocket, and also has an endorsement from Assembly Speaker Antonio Villaraigosa. Next on the fund-raising totem is Zeidler, president of the Redondo Beach School Board. Zeidler, who is openly gay, has been working the standard Democratic constituencies, and presents himself a as "real Democrat." Pinzler, a Redondo Beach councilmember, was seen as an early favorite in the race, not only because of his position, but because his wife is an employee of Bowen's. But Bowen herself is staying out of the race and Pinzler's fund raising has lagged. Also playing catch-up are Wirth, an aide to Jane Harman, and O'Brien, a business attorney, and Fathe, whose natural advantage as the only woman in the race is diminished by her relative invisibility as a candidate. All of the main Democratic contenders, save for Zeidler, are positioning themselves on the moderate to conservative end of the spectrum. The Democrats' job got a little easier the day filing closed. Republican Bill Beverly, son of former state Senator Bob Beverly, had been making rather low-key preparations to run. Beverly's relatively moderate positions and the identification with his father would have made his candidacy a strong one. But Beverly got confused about the directions for submitting signatures to qualify him for the ballot, and fell three signatures short of the number needed to make the ballot. Beverly tried to challenge his disqualification in court, arguing he'd substantially complied with the law, but his challenge was rejected. With Beverly out of the race, Eggers, a neo-libertarian policy director with the conservative Reason Foundation, was the only Republican left, perhaps giving Democrats something to actually look forward to this November.

HOT!

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 54

(Voter Registration: 45% D - 39% R) -- Democrats: Alan Lowenthal of Long Beach and Sandor Sonnen of Rolling Hills Estates. Republicans: Julie Alban and Doug Drummond of Long Beach; Marilyn Lyon of Rancho Palos Verdes; Alva Romero Personius of Rolling Hills Estates. American Independent: Phil Drake of Long Beach. Libertarian: Al Carlan of Rancho Palos Verdes.

Incumbent Republican Steve Kuykendall's decision to run for Jane Harman's congressional seat leaves an unexpected vacancy in this coastal swing district, which is bookended by working-class Long Beach at one end and the more elite Rancho Palos Verdes. Not surprisingly, two of the Republicans with a realsitic chance to win the seat are municipal elected officials, one from each end of the district. Lyon, a member of the Rancho Palos Verdes city council, got the early jump on the field, reporting more than $120,000 by mid-March. Though Lyon maintains she has ties to both ends of the district and polls well in Long Beach, most of her endorsements come from her political home base at the ritzier end of the district. Drummond, a Long Beach councilman, spent nearly three decades on the Long Beach police force. He polls better at the Long Beach end of the district, but his fund raising has lagged behind Lyon's. Looks like a fairly straightforward geographic fight except for one complication: newcomer Alban. A 31-year-old domestic violence prosecutor, Alban brings a law-enforcement credential to the race along with a wealthy benefactor: Her father, local surgeon Sy Alban. But Alban also brings something else: a compelling personal story which gained national attention. In 1988, one day after rejecting the marriage proposal of her boyfriend, the boyfriend - who was the step-son of the former publisher of the Long Beach Press Telegram - shot her in the back, then shot himself. Alban was left paralyzed, but battled back to earn a law degree and become a victim's rights advocate. So far, Lyon and Drummond are substantially better known than Alban and both make much of their experience - in her fund-raising literature, Lyon never fails to mention Alban's age. But the nearly $250,000 of her father's money pumped into Alban's race can buy a lot of name recognition. All three bill themselves as pro-choice moderates, a safe bet in a district in which Kukendall's combined margin of victory in two previous elections was less than 5,000 votes. But Drummond is generally seen as the most conservative of the three, and unless he gets some money, he could find himself effectively eclipsed by the two women on primary night. Alban's personal story and family wealth are an attractive profile, but unlike other self-funded neophytes, she is facing an opponent -- Lyon -- with the money to fight back. But Lyon has her own delicate balancing act; she'll have to attack Alban's inexperience without going so far as to create a sympathy backlash for the wheelchair-bound newcomer. Awaiting the Republican result will almost certainly be Lowenthal, a psychology professor and member of the Long Beach City Council. Active both in environmental issues -- he's an alternate on the California Coastal Commission -- and gun control, Lowenthal also hits many of the right buttons. This seat will almost certainly be at the top of both parties' target lists come the fall campaign.

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 55

(Voter Registration: 66% D - 18% R) -- Democrats: Incumbent Richard Floyd of Harbor City, Seth Francois of Wilmington, Carl Robinson of Carson. Republican: Don Eslinger of Torrance. Libertarian: Guy Wilson of Carson.

While this district's diversity makes it an ethnic battleground on paper, Floyd's rough-hewn iconoclasm seems to suit this blue-collar working-class stronghold.

HOT!

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 56

(Voter Registration: 50% D - 36% R) -- Democrat: Incumbent Sally Havice of Cerritos. Republican: Phil Hawkins of Cerritos. Libertarian: Bruce McKenzie of Downey.

Neither primary is contested, but watch out for the general election. Hawkins served one term in this blue-collar seat populated with Reagan Democrats before taking an unsuccessful shot at the state Senate. His desertion gave Democrats an opening which Havice ran through.

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 57

(Voter Registration: 56% D - 27% R) -- Democrats: Incumbent Martin Gallegos of Montebello, Sally Fallon of La Puente. Republican: Henry Gonzales of Hacienda Heights.

Fallon, a La Puente councilwoman, could be just getting her name around in anticipation of an opening in this district in 2000. Whatever her motive, she's not going to make much trouble for Gallegos.

HOT!

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 58

(Voter Registration: 63% D - 24% R) -- Democrats: Tom Calderon of Montebello, Rick Mayer of Whittier. Republican: Albert Nunez of Whittier.

The race to replace termed-out Democrat Grace Napolitano started out as a contest between Calderon, a school board member and younger brother of Senator Charles Calderon, and Rudy Bermudez, who sits on a different school board within the district. But Bermudez dropped out, backing Calderon. The field thus cleared, Calderon secured most of the important Sacramento endorsements, though his lone remaining competitor, Metropolitan Water District board member Mayer, does have some labor support from the building and construction trades. Although Mayer's water district includes most of the district, the family name should give the younger Calderon a decided edge.

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 59

(Voter Registration: 36% D - 45% R) -- Democrat: Christian Christiansen of Covina. Republican: Incumbent Bob Margett of Arcadia. Libertarian: Jerry Johnson of Covina. Natural Law: Louise Allison of Claremont.

The low-key Margett enjoys job security in one of L.A. County's most Republican districts.

HOT!

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICT 60

(Voter Registration: 43% D - 40% R) -- Democrat: Ben Wong of West Covina. Republicans: Norman Hsu of Hacienda Heights; Bob Huff, Michael Radlovic of Diamond Bar; Robert Pacheco of Walnut. Libertarian: Leland Faegre of West Covina.

The same demographic shift which pushed the Glendale and Pasadena-based 43rd and 44th districts into the Democratic column appears to be moving east -- two years ago, incumbent Gary Miller managed only 52 percent of the vote despite spending about 200 times as much as his little-known Democratic rival. This year, with Miller departing to challenge embattled GOP Representative Jay Kim, the Republican primary shapes up as yet another battle of a well-heeled newcomer against a veteran local official. The newcomer, Radlovic, is a 38-year-old businessman and former marketing consultant who, like his father, is a long-time party activist. Radlovic, who once worked for U.S. Senate candidate Michael Huffington, is casting himself as a moderate but also carries the backing of conservatives like Orange County Representative Ed Royce and former Senate GOP Leader Rob Hurtt. Radlovic has already stuffed more than $400,000 of his own money into the race. Pacheco, a 62-year-old Korean War vet who serves on the Walnut City Council, also seeded his campaign, but with only about a tenth of what Radlovic put in to his race. Pacheco is positioning himself as the conservative in the race, but that conservatism, and his Latino heritage, could resonate with the middle- to upper-middle income Latinos whose migration into the district is causing its transformation. The other two Republicans also have some public service bona fides -- Huff is a Diamond Bar councilman, and Hsu is a school board member. But the race appears to be between Pacheco and Radlovic, and will likely boil down to money, and whether Pacheco can raise enough to counter Radlovic's expected blitz. Whoever emerges from the primary will square off against Wong, a West Covina council member who owns a Chinese restaurant in the area.






This page first published May 25, 1998

Last updated May 25, 1998




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